Understanding Edge

It Ain’t Over Until It’s Over: A Look at the Fixed Income Markets in 2024

Senior Portfolio Specialist Douglas Gimple shares his insights on the fixed income markets. Tune in to hear about the latest from the Fed, market expectations, CMBS, and more.

Bonds rated AAA, AA, A and BBB are considered investment grade.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, fixed-rate taxable bond market and includes government and corporate bonds, agency mortgage-backed, asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed securities (agency and non-agency). Bloomberg US Corporate Index measures the performance of the US investment grade fixed-rate taxable corporate bond market. Bloomberg Non-Agency US CMBS Investment Grade Index measures the market of US Non-Agency conduit and fusion CMBS deals with a minimum current deal size of $300mn. The indexes are unmanaged, include net reinvested dividends, do not reflect fees or expenses (which would lower the return) and are not available for direct investment. Index data source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. See diamond-hill.com/disclosures for a full copy of the disclaimer.

MOVE Index, or Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index, measures interest rate volatility in the US Treasury market. It is calculated from options prices, which reflect the collective expectations of market participants about future volatility.

Yield to Worst is the lowest potential bond yield received without the issuer defaulting, it assumes the worst-case scenario, or earliest redemption possible under terms of the bond.  

The views expressed are those of Diamond Hill as of March 2024 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The Fed vs. the Market: Decoding Mixed Signals

Senior portfolio specialist Douglas Gimple discusses the market's ongoing desire to fight the Fed on rate cuts. Get insights into the latest from the FOMC, inflation and opportunities in fixed income in our podcast.

Bonds rated AAA, AA, A and BBB are considered investment grade.

ICE BofA AAA and BBB CMBS indexes measure the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated commercial mortgage-backed securities publicly issued in the US domestic market. These subsets include all securities with a given investment grade rating AAA and BBB, respectively. ICE BofA AAA and BBB Corporate indexes measure the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. These subsets include all securities with a given investment grade rating AAA and BBB, respectively. The indexes are unmanaged, include net reinvested dividends, do not reflect fees or expenses (which would lower the return) and are not available for direct investment. Index data source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. See diamond-hill.com/disclosures for a full copy of the disclaimer.

The views expressed are those of Diamond Hill as of February 2024 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Making Sense of the Bond Market Rally and What Comes Next

Tune into our podcast with senior portfolio specialist Douglas Gimple, as he discusses the latest from the Fed, what drove the November fixed income rally, and opportunities that await investors heading into 2024.

Examining the Fed, Inflation and Interest Rates: An Update for Fixed Income Investors

In our recent podcast, we unpack the latest from the Fed, inflation outlook, interest rate forecast, and more. Discover historical context on tightening cycles and fixed income returns over 3 years post-hikes. Plus, a deep dive into risks, opportunities and attractive areas of the bond market.

 

Bonds rated AAA, AA, A and BBB are considered investment grade.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, fixed-rate taxable bond market and includes government and corporate bonds, agency mortgage-backed, asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed securities (agency and non-agency). Bloomberg US CMBS AAA Index measures the market of US agency and US non-agency conduit and fusion CMBS deals rated AAA with a minimum current deal size of $300 million. Bloomberg US Corporate A-Rated Index measures the single-A rated, fixed-rate, taxable, corporate bond market. The indexes are unmanaged, market capitalization weighted, include net reinvested dividends, do not reflect fees or expenses (which would lower the return) and are not available for direct investment. Index data source: London Stock Exchange Group PLC. See diamond-hill.com/disclosures a full copy of the disclaimer 

The views expressed are those of Diamond Hill as of November 2023 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Reading Between the Spreads: Corporate Debt Dynamics in Shifting Markets

In our latest podcast, we discussed Fed policy, corporate bonds, and our #fixedincome market outlook with Douglas Gimple. Listen as we break down market dynamics, risks and areas of opportunity. (27 min podcast)

Bonds rated AAA, AA, A and BBB are considered investment grade.

Bloomberg US Corporate Index measures the performance of the US investment grade fixed-rate taxable corporate bond market. ICE BofA CMBS Fixed Rate AAA 7-10 Year Index measures the performance of US dollar denominated AAA-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities with a remaining term to maturity of greater than or equal to 7 years and less than 10 years in the US domestic market. ICE BofA CMBS Fixed Rate BBB 7-10 Year Index measures the performance of US dollar denominated BBB-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities with a remaining term to maturity of greater than or equal to 7 years and less than 10 years in the US domestic market. ICE BofA Single-A US Corporate Index measures the performance of US dollar denominated A-rated corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

The views expressed are those of Diamond Hill as of September 2023 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Global Investment Expeditions, Part 2: A Journey Through Scandinavia, Canada and India

Our international analysts recount learnings and insights from recent travels to Scandinavia, Canada, India and other destinations. Hear their first-hand experiences exploring local markets, researching investment prospects and meeting with management teams. (20 min)

As of 31 August 2023, Diamond Hill owned shares of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

The views expressed are those of Diamond Hill as of August 2023 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Global Investment Expeditions – Part 1, Exploring Japanese Culture and the Stock Market

Our international analysts shared their insights from recent research trips around the world. In this two-part series, they explore Japan, Scandinavia, Canada and India. In Part 1, we focus on Japan.

As of 31 July 2023, Diamond Hill owned shares of Howden Joinery Group plc.

The views expressed are those of Diamond Hill as of August 2023 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Staying Strong or Showing Stress? An Update on the Consumer

The debt ceiling debate, ongoing tightening cycle and a banking crisis have created volatility in financial markets. How is the consumer faring amid this uncertainty? Listen to our recent podcast to learn more.

The views expressed are those of the speakers as of June 2023 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Bond Market Spotlight: Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

Catch up on the latest updates in the CMBS market and May’s Fed meeting in this recent podcast with Senior Portfolio Specialist Douglas Gimple.

Bloomberg US Financial Institutions Index measures the performance of the financial institutions sector of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, fixed-rate taxable bond market and includes government and corporate bonds, agency mortgage-backed, asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed securities (agency and non-agency). Bloomberg US CMBS Investment Grade Index measures the market of US agency and US non-agency conduit and fusion CMBS. The indexes are unmanaged, include net reinvested dividends, do not reflect fees or expenses (which would lower the return) and are not available for direct investment. Index data source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. See diamond-hill.com/disclosures for full disclaimers.

As of 28 February 2023, Diamond Hill owned debt in Huntington Bancshares Inc., Citizens Bank NA, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc.

The views expressed are those of the speakers as of May 2023 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Leveling Up in the Video Game Market

Video game demand benefited from the stay-at-home days of the pandemic. Demand has waned, but the industry has been resilient in weaker economic environments. Learn what’s driving growth in this underappreciated market.

 

As of 31 March 2023, Diamond Hill owned shares of Microsoft Corp and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.

 

The views expressed are those of the speaker as of April 2023 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.